02-27-2014 CFALA Book Discussion: “Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail – and Why We Believe Them Anyway” by Dan Gardner
Thursday, February 27th, 2014
Chair: Don Brown, CFA
Note: For those on LinkedIn there is now a Group - CFA Society Los Angeles Book Club - set up to accommodate participation outside of the actual book club meetings. Feel free to join the Group to nominate particular books and comment on those already listed as potential future selections. And, of course, feel free to comment on a book or topic already selected as you prepare for the scheduled meeting.
Future Babble description from Amazon: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.
In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
As a participant in the CFA Institute Approved-Provider Program, the
CFA Society of Los Angeles has determined that this program qualifies
for 1 credit hours. If you are a CFA Institute member, CE credit for
your participation in this program will be automatically recorded in your CE Diary.
Registration Links (Must register to attend)
CFALA Members: $10.00 (place cursor on amount for link)
Non-members: $15.00 (place cursor on amount for link)
Time: 5:30pm: check-in and reception. Pizza and refreshments will be served.
6:00pm: book discussion
Location: Biltmore Court
520 S. Grand Ave., Suite 370
Los Angeles, CA 90071
Parking: Self-Parking at Pershing Square (located directly across the street on Olive St.): $10.00.
Central Library Parking: For information on discount parking rates at the library, please click here. Library validation required.
Dress Code: Business Casual