2018 Finance Forecasting Challenge

THE FINANCE FORECASTING CHALLENGE IS LIVE

Join the Finance Forecasting Challenge hosted by CFA Society Los Angeles and CFA® Societies of the Western US and compete against peers in this free, year-long educational event. Develop professional skills. Network with CFA® Society Los Angeles members and industry peers. And see how you stack up against the competition.

The Finance Forecasting Challenge is a localized, online challenge extended to CFA Society members and other finance professionals in which participants respond to questions related to finance, economics, geo-politics, and other related topics over the course of a year. Participants develop forecasting skills and compete for spots on a leaderboard to receive peer and industry recognition.

How does it work?

A total of 30 questions are unveiled over the course of a year. Participants have a specific period of time to respond to each question (typically 2-3 months). When the forecasting ends, real-world data is reviewed, and participants receive a score based on the accuracy and strength of the forecast. A leaderboard is kept throughout the challenge as participants vie for the top spot.

Additionally, participants are given customized feedback reports on their answers, giving details on their forecasting preferences and performance relative to peers.

Who can participate?

The challenge caters to CFA charterholders and members of local CFA Societies. However, anyone who is interested is welcome to participate.

Why should you participate?

The Finance Forecasting Challenge offers many benefits to CFA Societies, their members, and industry professionals in general.

  • Continue your professional development and learning
  • Attend a free webinar on the fundamentals of super forecasting and gain access to the program
  • Develop important professional skills while earning CE credit
  • Network with your local CFA Society members and industry peers
  • Gain recognition among peers and fellow society members

How can you get involved?

Go to www.goodjudgment.com/cfa/ now, register, and begin making your predictions.

Superforecasting was named an Economist magazine book of the year, was the second most recommended book of 2015 by Bloomberg’s top 50 contributors in finance and economics, and has been recommended by Harvard Business Review, The Wall Street Journal book review, former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, Daniel Kahneman, Steven Pinker, Michael Mauboussin, and AQR Chief Risk Officer Aaron Brown.

In 2011, the US Intelligence Community created the CIA equivalent to DARPA called IARPA to fund cutting-edge research with the potential to make the intelligence community smarter and more effective. They created a forecasting tournament and recruited teams from major universities, selected a half dozen finalists, and posed hundreds of geopolitical questions to them. Superforecasting tells how a few thousand amateur citizen-forecasters, recruited by Wharton professor Phil Tetlock, perhaps the world's leading expert on predicting the future, beat competitors like MIT -- and even the entirety of the U.S. intelligence community, which spends $50 billion per year and has 20,000 analysts -- by being an astonishing 30% more accurate in their predictions than analysts that had access to classified intercepts. This is truly a story of David beating Goliath using the wisdom of the crowd. One of the key conclusions of the competition is that forecasting accuracy can be significantly improved by participating.

 

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