Book Club Luncheon - Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

JUN
07
Tuesday, 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm
 
Location: Biltmore Court
CFALA Member Center
520 S Grand Ave. Suite 655 
Los Angeles, CA 90071
 
Speaker: None 
 
Time: 12:00PM - 12:30PM: Lunch/Networking
12:30PM - 1:30PM: Discussion
 
Dress: Business Casual
   
 
Add to Calendar 06/07/2016 12:00 PM 06/07/2016 1:30 pM America/Los_Angeles Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." Biltmore Court 520 S Grand Ave. Suite 655 Los Angeles, CA 90071 CFALA info@cfala.org false MM/DD/YYYY
A Book Club Sponsored Event

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by authors Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner

A New York Times Bestseller

An Economist Best Book of 2015

"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." —Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Biography

Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. He is also the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics.

Dan Gardner is a journalist and the author of Risk and Future Babble: Why Pundits are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best.
Registration Fees
$10 | $15 (Non-Member)
Parking Information
Click links for address and rates

Pershing Square Garage: Rates vary

Central Library Parking: Rates vary

Joe's Auto Parks: $12 

Pacific Center Parking: $15


More Parking Options (Click link)

WARNING: Parking at Millennium Biltmore - $45 Daily Max; $4.50 each 15 minutes

 
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Mail check to: 
CFA Society of Los Angeles, 520 S. Grand Ave, Suite 655, Los Angeles CA 90071.

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Cancellations
Cancellations must be received in writing by 9:00 am the day prior to the event. No phone cancellations are accepted. Please fax to the CFALA office at (213) 613-1233 or e-mail info@cfala.org. Member “no-shows” will be billed the non-member fee ($15) for the event which is posted on the CFALA website.
 
Chair: 
Don Brown, CFA
As a participant in the CFA Institute Approved-Provider Program, the CFA Society of Los Angeles has determined that this program qualifies for 1 credit hours. If you are a CFA Institute member, CE credit for your participation in this program will be automatically recorded in your CE Diary.
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