Choice Under Uncertainty: The Rules of Randomness
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
12:00 pm – 1:30 pm, Lunch
Leonard Mlodinow, Ph.D.
California Institute of Technology
Chair: Cynthia Harrington, CFA
An Applied Behavioral Finance Group Event
In this presentation, Leonard Mlodinow, PhD, demonstrates how our lives are profoundly informed by chance and randomness. Drawing from the detailed research in his bestselling book, The Drunkards Walk, and author of upcoming book on cognitive neuroscience and behavioral economics, Mlodinow shares the criteria for choice in the face of uncertainty.
In this presentation, he will demonstrate the mathematical nature of chance and discuss the psychological illusions that keep us from factoring chance into our decisions. For instance, the psychological effect of expectation bias masks our ability to determine the role of chance in investment performance attribution. Being attuned to investor biases heightens awareness, especially to "fat tail" events, decreasing the likelihood of being surprised by randomness.
Leonard Mlodinow received his doctorate in physics from the University of California, Berkeley, was an Alexander von Humboldt fellow at the Max Planck Institute. For his doctoral thesis he developed a new approximation method in which you solve a problem in infinite dimensions, and then calculate corrections to account for the fact that we live in only three. His previous books include Euclid's Window: The Story of Geometry from Parallel Lines to Hyperspace, Feynman's Rainbow: A Search for Beauty in Physics and in Life, and, with Stephen Hawking, A Briefer History of Time. He now teaches about randomness to future scientists at California Institute of Technology.
Event sponsor: Analytic Investors provides quantitatively-driven investment management services to corporations, public funds, foundations, and other institutional investors. Based in Los Angeles, Analytic employs over 70 professionals and manages approximately $9 billion as of December 31, 2009. Since its founding in 1970, the firm’s mission has been to fulfill clients’ objectives through rational, systematic identification of market opportunities, while minimizing the impact of human emotions that often dominate investment decision making. Analytic manages a range of equity and derivative-based assets for clients in relative benchmark and absolute-return-driven strategies.
Time: 12:00 pm – 1:30 pm, Lunch
251 South Olive Street
Los Angeles, CA 90071
For directions call hotel: (213) 617-3300
Methods of payment accepted: Visa/Mastercard, American Express and Discover. If you prefer to pay by check please register online and select "purchase order" as your payment option and enter your last name as the purchase order number. Mail check to: CFA Society of Los Angeles, 350 S. Grand Ave, Suite 1680, Los Angeles CA 90071.
*Credit card payments will only be accepted through the secure online registration, and not by phone or email.